Lagos State: 2023 Election Flashpoints and Mitigation Strategies

The political atmosphere of Nigeria is changing rapidly as the 2023 electioneering gathers momentum.
These days, a week hardly passes without media reports of some incidents of clashes between party
supporters, promotion of hate speech and clampdown on democracy activists by politicians and even state security agents. There is a growing concern that election-related harassment, intimidation and violence may increase as the country moves into the polls. However, some states and cities in the
country experience electoral threats more than others. In this Nextier SPD policy weekly, we examine the driver of electoral violence in Lagos State and highlight possible mitigation strategies for the menace. Subsequent editions will examine other flashpoints in the country to draw local and international attention to the hotspots and enhance security around the upcoming election.

High Stakes in Lagos

The 2023 election will be keenly contested in Lagos State for several reasons. First is the huge population of the state. As of 2022, the population of Lagos State is approximately 17.5 million. Indeed, Lagos has become one of the most populated cities in the world. As democracy is largely a game of numbers, this huge population has critical implications for electoral politic in Lagos State and the Presidential election. Already, gladiators of Nigeria’s three dominant political parties are engaged in swaying the choices of the Lagos voters in 2023. Secondly, the ruling All Progressives Congress’ presidential flagbearer (Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu) was governor of Lagos State between 1999 and 2007. Besides his reputation for patron-client politics, which has produced several ‘godsons’ including current Lagos State governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu, Tinubu has enormous wealth and local networks to his advantage. However, the defection of the famous ‘Lagos4Lagos Movement’ to the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) and the emergence of the Movement’s leader, Abdul-Azeez Adediran popularly known as Jandor, as PDP’s gubernatorial flagbearer for the 2023 election has significantly reduced Tinubu’s influence in the state. Besides the Jandor factor, the Igbo people have a huge population and businesses in Lagos. Despite allegations of Igbo residents in Lagos by member of the All Progressives Congress (APC), the Igbo are poised to support the presidential candidature of the Labour Party, Mr Peter Obi, who is the Igbo ethnic group. The Lagos youth have become more vocal and politically conscious since the 2020 EndSARS protest against police brutality. In the last two years, the youth have deployed social media and physical mobilisation to galvanise enormous support for Peter Obi and other likeminded progressives.

Lagos Booth Soldiers

The high stakes in Lagos are shaping electoral activities in the commercial nerve of Nigeria. Since January 2022, there has been growing political harassment and violence against opposition in Lagos State. For example, the violent activities of the National Union of Road Transport Workers (NURTW) members led to their indefinite suspension at Eyin Eyo, Church Street and Idumota Bridge, and Lagos Island in January 2022. Furthermore, in June 2022 members of the PDP in the state accused
the APC of using violence to scuttle citizens’ desire to obtain voter’s cards. According to Debo Ologunagba, the PDP National Publicity Secretary, the APC was “preventing people of the SouthEast” from collecting their Permanent Voter’s Cards (PVC). Debo Ologunagba recalled how APC supporters had used political violence against supporters of other political parties in previous elections, including threatening to throw Igbo people into the Lagoon if they did not vote for APC. Also, following the violent attack on PDP’s campaign tour by suspected APC thugs at Badagry in October 2022, the party requested a thorough investigation into incessant political violence in Lagos State. Apart from the media, scholars have also condemned the incessant use of the members of NURTW, popularly known as ‘agberos’, to unleash mayhem on political opponents in Lagos State. According to Agbiboa (2022), “the mafia-like motor park touts” do not only work as informal tax collectors but also as political thugs in alliance with the state.

Electoral Violence Mitigation Strategies

From the preceding, some policy measures are needed to address the growing electoral politica violence in Lagos State.

1. Politicians and their supporters who perpetrate political violence should be prosecuted and sanctioned: Members of the political elite who promote hate speech, deploy thugs to harass their opponents and perpetrate any form of violence should be prosecuted and sanctioned appropriately, no matter their socioeconomic status. Inviting politicians to merely sign peace accords without holding them to account for violence linked to them or their supporters should be stopped. If politicians who have weaponised violence in Lagos State had been sanctioned in the last couple of years, the act of electoral violence and thuggery would have been drastically reduced by now.
2. Addressing Igbo oppression: The growing violent attacks on Igbo people in Lagos and northern Nigeria should be stopped. This ethnic and religious violence often results from the indigene-settler’ phenomenon. Owing to the poor entrenchment of national citizenship rights in Nigeria, people who migrate to other parts of the country are often seen as ‘strangers or settlers’ compared to others who trace their ancestral origin to such areas and are referred to as ‘natives or indigenes’. The so-called settlers are denied many of the rights enjoyed by the indigenes and are violently attacked when the clamour or agitate for such rights,
   sometimes including franchises. This practice which sacrifices national citizenship on the altar of indigeneity, should be de-emphasised in the claims to socioeconomic and political goods, especially in cosmopolitan cities such as Lagos where Igbo people constitute not only a significant proportion of the population but also dominate the commanding heights of the Lagos economy.
3. Political sensitisation at motor parks: Following the incessant deployment of the members of the NURTW by
   politicians in Lagos in particular and other Western states of Nigeria in general, the government and civil
   society organisations should engage in widespread sensitisation at motor parks to educate the drivers and touts to embrace peace. Sections of the laws which criminalise political thuggery and violence should be explained to the touts, many of whom are illiterate. Local Yoruba language can be used to drive home the campaigns.
4. As Nigeria debates the need for the commission of an electoral offence, there is a severe need to include in clear terms violent acts and offences linked to the elections, such as physical and direct suppression of voting or electoral-related activities like preventing others either from voting or obtaining a voter’s card.
   Incidentally, most of the election related harassment by foot soldiers of politicians is found here and is often not prosecuted.
   Conclusion
   Ahead of the 2023 general elections, many politicians and their supporters have started to deploy violence against members of opposing parties, as exemplified in Lagos State. To ensure free, fair, credible and peaceful elections in 2023, we believe politicians who perpetrate such violence should be prosecuted and sanctioned to serve as a lesson to others. In addition, we recommend that the increasing persecution of Igbo people in Lagos should be stopped since all qualified Nigerians are entitled to franchise no matter where they reside. Lastly, we recommend that government agencies and civil society groups extend their
   campaigns and sensitisation to motor parks so that drivers who are often deployed as touts should turn a new leaf.